This is no better demonstrated than in the chart below, supplied by ANZ.
It shows the proportion of votes going to minor political parties in Australia, going all the way back to 1949. There’s a clear trend, with minor parties drawing an increasing percentage of the total vote, particularly in the Senate.
Given the strong trend, and evenness in recent opinion polls, ANZ’s Australian economics team, led by Felicity Emmett, believe that there’s a chance of a hung parliament emerging from tomorrow’s election.
“The extent of the minor party vote, both in the House of Representatives and the Senate, will influence the new government’s ability to implement change, where we see some risk of a hung Parliament,” says ANZ.
A hung parliament is a scenario where no one party has an absolute majority of seats in the parliament.
While the bookies don’t believe this will be the case, installing the Coalition as red-hot favourites, ANZ also cautions over complacency towards the result.
As we all found out this time last week, what the bookies have as a favourite isn’t always replicated in reality. Just ask the British.
“Opinion polls are fairly evenly balanced, although betting markets suggest a Liberal-National Coalition win,” it says. “The shock result in the UK referendum suggests that we should not be complacent about the potential for surprise.”
Polls will open on Australia’s east coast at 8am AEST. A friendly reminder that voting is compulsory.