RealClearPolitics’ poll of polls now shows Clinton seven points ahead of Trump (48.941.9). Only one of nine major polls show Trump ahead within a margin of error (LA Times-USC tracking puts Trump 45-43 ahead). The rest show Clinton leading anywhere from 12 points (in the Monmouth poll) to four points (ABC News Washington Post). All polling data is after Trump’s groping scandal.
Separate polling models based on the percentage of winning chances shows that Clinton now has a 91% chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s nine per cent. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that a National Football League kicker misses a 31 yard field goal, according to this statistical model
To put it in cricketing perspective, it is akin to a team not making three runs to win in the final over of a game. It has happened before (23 yard field goals have been missed in NFL history , just as cricket teams have occasionally failed to ma ke three runs in the final over), but it is unlikely to happen in this US election, although some three weeks remain before November 8.
This model also puts Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate at 60%, but their chances of winning the House of Representatives are less than 10%. This is because Senate elections are statewide (two senators per state) but House seats are district wise and based on population, and many districts (constituencies in Indian electoral parlance) ha ve been “gerrymandered“ (boundaries manipulated to favour one party; named after former Massacushetts governor Elbridge Gerry who redrew constituency boun daries to favour his party).
The American voters are also reluctant to hand over both the legislature and the executive to the same party . Still, the Clintonistas are now hoping to at least capture the 100 member Senate (where GOP has 54 seats) by turning over at least five seats, and whittling down the GOP majority in the House (where Republicans currently hold 246 seats to Democrats’ 186).
Consequently , the Clinton campaign has now begun pushing money , resources and personnel into toss-up or battleground states where Trump and the Republican Party were considered secure despite the rift in the GOP . They include Georgia and Arizona, where Trump’s lead is starting to wear down, and where, because of demographic changes (growing black and Hispanic population) the Clinton campaign feels it is in with a chance. The Clinton campaign is going as far as to plow money into Indiana andMissouri, both Republican redoubts.
According to the current electoral map, Clinton has a lock on 256 electoral college votes from hardcore Democrat or Democrat-leaning states where she has little chance of losing. Trump has a lock on only 121 electoral college votes from hardcore Repubican or GOP-leaning states. That leaves 112 electoral votes from 10 toss-up states that will decide who will get to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency
Since Clinton already has 256 electoral votes in her column, she needs only one or two states to get to 270. Current polls show that barring Iowa and Arizona, eight others are leaning towards Clinton. If she wins them all, she will blow past 350 electoral votes, a landslide.