Global growth and monetary policies in US, China matter for Indian markets : Manpreet Singh Gill


There is a big debate on how the global dynamics of each country is starkly different from the other. What, according to you, is the biggest global risk that countries like India should worry about right now?

Manpreet Singh Gill: Well it is ultimately, back to global growth. US economic growth and the resulting Fed feedback loop and what is happening on the Chinese side all matter. We have seen a little bit of recovery in some of the key economicindicators but some of this has been lead by some improvement in credit and some of the indications coming out recently seem to suggest that may not necessarily be long lasting. So it is really coming back to the same couple of cues, a lot of it is coming back to monetary policy in some of the largest economies in the world. From a global perspective, that is what matters for Indian markets.

Manpreet Singh Gill: We have never really been convinced by the rebound in metal markets because going back a month or two, when we were looking at the rise in some of the metals, take iron ore for example, that did not have a strong underlying source of fundamental support because nothing had changed on the supply side. It was not like we had seen big cuts and also nothing had changed on the demand side. It was no that demand from China has disgnificantly increased. So I think a process of normalisation is underway and that is the reason we are not particularly keen to chase broad-based commodities rally. We think there may be a few specific stories, we think oil might be interesting. If you are taking sort of a long term 12-18 month kind of view, metals not so much interesting. And both on the equities side and currency side, we think metal linked investments are not terribly attractive at this time.

Manpreet Singh Gill: Those kinds of indicators are very important. They are ultimately good signal of some of the underlying economic data. As for margins, we think they are positive and in an absolute sense, we all like them to be significantly more positive but the question here is twofold; one is we are seeing delta improvement, we think in select areas you are seeing arguably a bit of a bottoming out and some of the upcoming policy, monsoon will be important.

Second, from a financial market point of view, the relative factor does matter. Yes, in absolute terms, growth data in India could be better but if you are a global investor having to choose between key emerging markets, India looks pretty decent. It is not like there are a lot of other good options. Particularly, if you are a yield investor, moving away even from equity markets for a moment, yields still look fantastic for the risk you are taking on

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